A quiet alert went out across South Africa’s wine country in 2025. The figures published by Wines of South Africa and South Africa Wine showed export values down and volumes sliding. For growers and cellar masters who read the numbers as more than statistics, the report paints a picture of an industry that is weathering shifting demand patterns while doubling down on value.
Here are the hard facts. Export revenue measured in rands fell 4.7% year on year to R9.8 billion. In US dollar terms exports declined 2.4% to US$548.5 million. Total exported volume dropped 13.8% to 264 million litres. The fall was most pronounced in bulk wine, which fell nearly 20% to 146.4 million litres. Packaged wine fared better, slipping 4.6% to 117.6 million litres and accounting for the lion’s share of export value.
A strategy that favours value over volume
Siobhan Thompson, chief executive of Wines of South Africa, summed it up in plain language. South Africa is operating in a tougher global environment marked by falling wine consumption, economic pressure and rising trade barriers. That context is important because it explains why the industry is prioritising value over sheer volume. It is a strategy that accepts smaller shipments if those shipments fetch stronger returns and protect long term sustainability.
The report shows packaged wine remains the backbone of export revenue. Packaged wine revenue declined 2% in rands to R7.7 billion, but nudged up 0.4% in US dollars to US$431 million. Bulk wine, which often moves on low margins and in large volumes, recorded a steeper value decline. Bulk sales fell 13.4% in rands to R2.1 billion and dropped 11.4% in US dollars to US$117 million. Those trends suggest producers and exporters are being forced to be more selective about what they sell and where they sell it.
Markets that matter and those that are cooling
The United Kingdom held steady as South Africa’s largest export market by value in 2025, with sales remaining flat at US$145 million. Germany, in second place, recorded a 9% decline to US$48 million. The United States showed a significant fall, with exports down 28% to US$28 million. That drop follows the introduction of tariffs in August which the report says have had a disproportionate impact on exporting countries.
There was a brighter story closer to home. African destinations increased their share of export value to more than 10 percent. Overall exports to Africa rose 13% to US$55 million. Kenya, Zambia and Uganda each posted notable gains. Volumes shipped to Africa rose by 1% to 24 million litres, with Nigeria leading volumes at 4.2 million litres. Those numbers underline a longer term strategy emphasised by industry leaders: building demand in developing and emerging markets as global consumption patterns evolve.
What this means for producers and the value chain
The drop in volumes is painful for some, but the steady value performance is a sign of resilience. For farmers and winemakers, the immediate questions are practical. How do we protect margins when bulk buyers disappear? How do we add enough value to bottles so they sell at healthier prices? How do we pivot quickly into markets that are growing even when established markets cool?
The answers are familiar, but they require investment and coordination. Better branding, tighter quality controls, smarter distribution channels and more targeted marketing in growth markets will be necessary. Equally important is support for farmers and co operatives to move up the value chain so they are not dependent on low margin bulk demand.
Tariffs and trade policy are another immediate worry. The US tariff has had a measurable impact and the full effect will become clearer as the year unfolds. The industry will need to continue engaging with trade partners and government to reduce friction and identify compensatory market opportunities.
Opportunities in diversification and collaboration
There are two encouraging threads in the data. First, packaged wine is proving its worth as a source of stable revenue in tough times. Second, African markets are becoming more important and can serve as a growth corridor if exporters and governments work together to improve market access and distribution.
For many South African producers the path forward may look like diversification. That could mean adding higher value labels, expanding into neighbouring markets, or investing in premium varietals and sustainable practices that meet the growing consumer demand for provenance and responsible production.
A sober, but not bleak, outlook
The 2025 results are a wake up call and a tactical pivot point. The decline in volumes shows the industry cannot rely on past patterns of growth. Yet the relatively stable value performance indicates South African wine still has market appeal and room to manoeuvre. If producers, exporters and policymakers treat this moment as an opportunity to invest in value, nurture emerging markets and press for fairer trade conditions, the industry can come out of this period leaner and more focused.
The vineyard work will continue day by day. For growers worrying about the next season, the practical task is clear. Tighten quality control, tell better stories about your wine, and work with fellow producers to turn local advantages into global value. The numbers from 2025 will be a reference point, not a verdict, if the industry treats them as a call to adapt and to sell what it does best more deliberately.
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