As an agricultural expert with more than 15 years consulting for the African Development Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organisation and the United Nations Development Programme, I have seen what works and what fails. Namibia sits on a clear opportunity. Its 11 Green Scheme projects were designed to turn perennial rivers into steady, irrigated production of rice, wheat, maize and horticulture. Done right, those schemes could drive food self sufficiency, rural jobs and meaningful export earnings. Done wrong, they become expensive reminders of missed potential.
Today AgriBusDev is that crossroad. The agency was created to coordinate and run the Green Schemes at Orange River, Hardap, Etunda, Musese, Sikondo, Uvhungu Vhungu, Ndonga Linena, Mashare, Shadikongoro, Kalimbeza and Shitemo. Chronic underfunding, slow procurement, fragmented policy and weak technical capacity have left many schemes underperforming. Between 2013 and recent years AgriBusDev has received only N$490 million of an estimated N$1.2 billion needed, and that shortfall has translated into missed planting seasons and lost harvests. Meanwhile Namibia still imports staple foods, spending N$340.8 million on rice alone between June 2022 and June 2023, while the land and water to grow that crop sit idle in many places.
This is not a problem that disappears with blame. It needs a practical reform pathway that balances public stewardship with operational agility. Based on work I have led in Sierra Leone, Ghana, Ethiopia and Zambia, I offer a focused plan to revive AgriBusDev and make the Green Schemes work for farmers and for Namibia.
A new operating model: semi autonomous and stakeholder driven
The 2023 dissolution of AgriBusDev as a standalone agency and the proposed integration into the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform sparked a debate about governance. Integration can centralise resources, but it risks perpetuating the bureaucratic delays that have long hampered the sector. My recommendation is a hybrid solution.
AgriBusDev should be re established as a semi autonomous state owned enterprise under ministry oversight. The organisation would be governed by a stakeholder driven board that includes farmer representatives, private sector partners, technical experts and county officials. That board would approve a five year strategic plan aligned with Vision 2030 and the Harambee Prosperity Plan, while operational decisions would be made with the speed and focus of an enterprise.
Key pillars for transformation
- Streamline procurement and digitalise the supply chain
Lengthy procurement cycles have repeatedly delayed seeds, fertiliser and equipment. Digital procurement platforms and pre approved supplier lists can cut delivery times substantially. Ethiopia’s Agricultural Transformation Agency reduced delivery times through similar systems. Namibia should invest in a comparable digital procurement solution, with regional input hubs near schemes like Mashare and Ndonga Linena to shorten transport times and reduce stock outs. A one off investment in the order of around US$20 million could modernise processes and unlock rapid gains in efficiency. - Put farmers at the centre with training and incentives
Smallholders are the backbone of the Green Schemes. In Ghana, farmer training under FAO programs boosted adoption of sustainable intensification technologies by 60 percent. Namibia should scale hands on training in fermentation, irrigation scheduling, soil management and post harvest handling. Quality premiums like the ones other countries have used can incentivise good practice. Importantly, training and incentive payments must reach farmers directly through cooperatives and county led distribution to avoid leakage. - Upgrade infrastructure through smart PPPs
Many schemes lack modern irrigation equipment, functioning tractors and well placed drying and storage. Public private partnerships have worked elsewhere to replace outdated assets and bring professional management to underperforming sites. Namibia should target N$500 million in private investment over five years to upgrade infrastructure and allow private operators to lease and professionally manage underutilised schemes. This approach brings capital and accountability while keeping strategic oversight with government. - Strengthen data, remote sensing and farm level traceability
Digital tools can change how we manage water, protect crops and plan supply. Satellite imagery, farm level geo mapping and mobile based extension apps help target inputs and detect stress early. A digital backbone also improves transparency in procurement and ensures subsidies reach intended beneficiaries. Regional data hubs can support real time decision making for farmers and scheme managers. - Build regional input hubs and local supplier capacity
Concerns that inputs must be imported have been overstated. Local suppliers can meet demand if procurement is predictable and hubs reduce transportation costs. Establishing regional input hubs near the Green Schemes will cut delivery times, lower prices and create local jobs in distribution and agro servicing. - Ensure accountability and transparent premium flows
PPPs and incentives work only when payments are transparent and traceable. Premium schemes must be conditional on measurable practice changes and payment channels should be digital and auditable so farmers actually receive the rewards for improved performance.
What success looks like
A revitalised AgriBusDev will deliver visible outcomes within two to three seasons. Planting windows will be met because seeds and fertiliser arrive on time. Collection centres and community drying yards will cut post harvest losses. Farmers will receive quality premiums that boost incomes. The national import bill for staples will shrink and county economies will feel the benefit in more stable cash flows and growing local enterprises.
Beyond the numbers there is a human story. A family that once migrated for seasonal labor can stay because irrigation provides steady work. A cooperative chair who struggled to get reliable buyers can now negotiate contracts backed by traceable quality records. A classroom that reopened after a farmer could pay school fees on time becomes a sign that the system works.
Risks and mitigation
The main risks are political interference, weak implementation and failure to attract private capital. These are manageable. Clear legal safeguards can protect the semi autonomous model from short term political swings. A strong board with farmer representation will help ensure policies are practical. Finally, early pilot PPPs with performance based contracts reduce investor risk and build proof points that attract larger finance.
Namibia’s water resources and geographic advantages give it a real shot at food security and lucrative agricultural trade. The Green Schemes were built for that purpose. But potential does not become production by accident. It requires focused governance, predictable financing, practical digital tools and an insistence that farmers get the training and rewards they deserve.
The original Article was written by Lukas Mandema
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