When a farmer in Kericho pours a cup of tea, there is a long chain of people whose livelihoods depend on that small act. In the first half of 2025 that chain felt a jolt. Kenya’s export earnings contracted for the first time since 2019, pulled down largely by a sharp fall in tea revenues that erased Kes 17.5 billion, or about US$135.5 million, from the country’s foreign exchange coffers.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics show exports fell to Kes 554.08 billion in January to June 2025, down from Kes 571.6 billion a year earlier. That 3.06 percent drop ended a six year run of growth and underlined how exposed Kenya remains to swings in commodity markets and in a narrow range of export products.
Tea is still Kenya’s top agricultural export, and its performance this year explains much of the disappointment. Tea earnings in H1 2025 totaled Kes 90.12 billion, down 12.05 percent from Kes 102.47 billion in the same period of 2024. Both volume and value fell. Export quantities slipped to 315,036 tonnes from 320,564 tonnes, and average prices at the Mombasa Tea Auction weakened over the review period. That combination translated into fewer shillings coming back to Kenya from its oldest cash crop.
Production trends mirror the pain. Monthly tea output fell from 52.1 thousand metric tonnes in May to 42.4 thousand MT in June, while auction volumes eased from 33.4 thousand MT to 32.3 thousand MT over the same months. Although the average auction price ticked up slightly from US$1.91 per kg in May to US$2.01 per kg in June, the H1 average was US$2.12 per kg, down from US$2.20 per kg in 2024. Taken together, weaker prices and lower volumes explain why tea revenues contracted for the first time since 2019.
There are bright spots. Coffee earnings surged, recording an 83.68 percent increase to Kes 35.38 billion in H1 2025 from Kes 19.26 billion a year earlier. Cut flower exports rose by 19.48 percent to Kes 47.08 billion. Those gains cushioned the overall decline, showing that Kenya’s export base still contains pockets of strong performance even as tea struggles.
When tea revenues fall, the effects are felt beyond auction houses. Smallholder farmers face squeezed incomes, processors see thinner margins, casual labour opportunities decline, and local businesses that depend on farm cash flow slow down. For families who rely on seasonal tea income to pay school fees or medical bills, a drop like this is not an abstract statistic. It is a real hardship.
Several forces are at play. Weather swings have hurt yields in some growing regions, while global demand patterns and buyer budgets have reduced upside for prices. At the same time, Kenya still exports a narrow mix of products, which means a setback in one major commodity can ripple across the whole export ledger. That concentration highlights the need for both short term mitigation and longer term diversification.
There are realistic, actionable responses that can help. First, improving farm resilience through better inputs, irrigation, and climate smart agronomy can shore up yields. Second, accelerating value addition at home so a higher share of processing and packaging happens inside Kenya would capture more value locally. Third, expanding market diversification and trade promotion for nontea products will reduce reliance on a single commodity. Finally, targeted support that smooths income for smallholders during price shocks can prevent immediate social harm while longer term reforms take hold.
Look for the following signals. Will the Mombasa Tea Auction stabilize prices as the year progresses? Will rainfall and weather patterns improve yields in the main growing regions? Can the coffee and flowers sectors keep their momentum and help offset further tea weakness? And importantly, will policymakers accelerate measures that improve market access, logistics and processing investment for farmers? The answers to those questions will determine whether this H1 contraction is a temporary setback or the start of a longer adjustment.
Numbers matter, but behind the figures are farmers tending bushes at dawn, factory workers sorting leaves, drivers collecting crates, and families planning for another school term. Restoring export momentum is not just an economic imperative. It is a social one. With targeted support, smarter diversification and investment in value chains, Kenya can translate this wake up call into momentum for more resilient, inclusive growth that keeps cups of Kenyan tea on tables and incomes in pockets.
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