Kenya is reeling in fewer fish from abroad as its own waters and farms begin to carry more of the load. In 2024 the country spent just US$7.12 million on fish and fishery products, down 44 percent from US$12.77 million the year before. That sharp drop in the import bill came with a fall in volumes, a sign that domestic producers are starting to close part of the supply gap.
More fish from home, less on the shipping bill
The numbers tell a clear story. Kenya imported 9,960 tonnes of fish in 2024, down from 11,253 tonnes in 2023, an 11.4 per cent decline in import volume. Meanwhile, total domestic landings rose 4.34 per cent to 168,424 tonnes, with marine fishing and aquaculture pulling much of the weight. Marine catches jumped by about 21 per cent while aquaculture output increased roughly 5 per cent. Inland capture fisheries, which still supply the largest share of local fish, dipped by around 3.5 percent. Those production shifts are the backbone of the reduced import dependence.
Why production is rising now
Several factors explain the shift. Cage aquaculture in Lake Victoria has grown rapidly, and commercial marine fishing has improved its catch rates. At the same time the government and sector players have stepped up training, outreach, and investment in fingerlings, hatcheries and cold chain facilities. These changes do not happen overnight, but they add up quickly when combined with better market linkages and private sector participation. The Kenya Fisheries Service points to these domestic gains as the main reason imports are falling.
Policy nudges that matter
Policy has played a role too. The 2023 24 budget introduced a 10 percent excise duty on imported fish, a measure designed to limit cheaper inflows and to protect local producers from unfair competition. That tax makes imported fish less price competitive and nudges processors, traders and retailers to source more locally where possible. While fiscal policy alone cannot replace production, it has helped sharpen the economics in favour of homegrown supply.
Demand still outstrips supply
Even with these gains, Kenya produces far less fish than it needs. Per capita fish consumption in Kenya sits at about 4.3 kilograms per year, well below the African average of about 10 kilograms. With a population above 51 million in 2024, projected national demand is roughly 510,000 tonnes a year, more than three times current production. That gap means imports will still be necessary for the foreseeable future, and that expanding aquaculture and marine yields remains a national priority.
Where the opportunity lies
This moment is an opening for farmers, entrepreneurs and investors. Cage aquaculture, pond culture, improved broodstock and fingerling supply, and cold storage all offer rapid returns if they are scaled correctly. Small traders and market vendors benefit too when the supply chain shortens and prices stabilize. At the same time, processors who can add value with smoked, frozen or prepacked products stand to seize niche urban and export markets that pay a premium for safety and convenience. Localising more of the value chain keeps money moving in local economies and creates jobs along the way.
Risks and realities
Growth brings risk. Intensified aquaculture requires careful management to avoid water quality problems, disease outbreaks and biodiversity impacts in lakes and coastal areas. Marine growth must be matched with sustainable fishing practices to avoid overfishing. And because inland fisheries still supply the lion’s share of fish, protecting those ecosystems and the livelihoods that rely on them remains crucial. Investment must therefore be paired with regulation, training, and extension services that help smallholders and fishers adopt better practices.
What success looks like
A stronger fish sector will be visible in several ways. First, a continuing fall in the import bill as local production scales up. Second, more cages, ponds and hatcheries operating profitably and sustainably. Third, rising per capita consumption as affordable supply reaches urban and rural kitchens alike. Finally, a more resilient supply chain that can withstand shocks and deliver safe, nutritious fish to Kenyans year round.
Kenya’s 2024 figures show a clear trend. Domestic production is on the rise and imports are falling, but the country still has a long way to go before production meets demand. The right mix of policy, investment and on the water best practice can turn this early momentum into a lasting transformation. For consumers, that means fresher fish on the table. For producers, it means new markets and better prices. For the country, it means keeping more of the value of its own food.
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