Uganda earned US$202.8 million from coffee exports in August, but that figure hides a sharp contradiction. Exports rose in volume, yet revenues fell 8.2 percent compared with August last year, victims of softer world prices and a heavy reliance on Robusta sales. For a country where coffee and gold are the top foreign exchange earners, the numbers matter to everyone from smallholder farmers to portside traders.
Numbers at a glance
- Export revenues in August: US$202.8 million, down 8.2% year on year.
- Export volume: 855,441 60-kilogram bags, up 2.5% year on year.
- Average export price: US$3.95 per kilogram, down from US$4.19 in July and US$4.41 a year earlier.
- Robusta: 797,363 bags, valued at US$180.79 million.
- Arabica: 58,078 bags, valued at US$21.96 million; Arabica volumes rose 11.88% and value rose 63.96% versus August 2024.
- Season to date, September 2024 to August 2025: 7.93 million bags worth UGX 7.94 trillion (US$2.27 billion), up 17.88% in volume and 58.72% in value from the prior year.
How volumes rose while earnings fell
At first glance the numbers seem contradictory. More coffee left the country, yet exporters brought home less money. The explanation is straightforward. A good harvest across many coffee growing areas pushed up volumes. But global price movements tilted against Robusta, which makes up the bulk of Uganda exports. When the commodity price falls, even larger shipments can produce smaller receipts. The result is a bittersweet harvest: plenty of cherries and parchment, but thinner paydays for some players along the chain.
Robusta under pressure, Arabica a bright spot
Robusta remains the backbone of Uganda coffee exports and also the channel where the earnings shock landed. Robusta accounted for almost the entire volume and drove most of the revenue loss because world Robusta prices softened in July and spilled into August receipts. By contrast Arabica posted notable gains in both volume and value. Arabica buyers paid noticeably more, lifting Arabica value by nearly 64 percent year on year. That divergence underscores an important reality: quality and variety now matter more than ever for resilience.
What this looks like at farm-gate level
Farmers experienced a mixed month. Farm-gate prices were generally higher than in July. Average prices reported included:
- Robusta Kiboko: UGX 6,500 per kilogram.
- Robusta FAQ: UGX 13,500 per kilogram.
- Arabica parchment: UGX 14,500 per kilogram.
- Drugar: UGX 13,500 per kilogram, though this fell slightly.
Higher farm-gate rates for some grades show demand for better quality and for processed forms. Still, many smallholders who sell lower-grade cherry or Kiboko feel the squeeze when global Robusta prices drop, because the gains from higher volumes do not fully offset the lower export price per kilogram.
Markets and concentration risk
Europe remains the dominant market, taking 62 percent of Uganda coffee exports. Italy alone accounts for nearly 30 percent of the market. Other major destinations include Sudan at about 13 percent and Germany at about 10 percent. African markets absorbed roughly 23 percent of shipments, totaling 195,858 bags. On the export side, the business is concentrated: the top 10 exporters handled about 64 percent of shipments, with Kyagalanyi Coffee Ltd, Export Trading Company, and Olam Uganda among the leaders. Concentration can help logistics and market access, but it also concentrates risk when a single market segment faces price stress.
Why this matters beyond the numbers
Coffee is not just an export item. It is a livelihood, a rural safety net, and a national income stream. When earnings fall, the effects ripple. Traders and exporters see narrower margins. Millers and transporters tighten operations. Smallholders who lack storage or access to forward contracts can be forced to sell into weak markets. At the same time, the strong Arabica performance shows pathways to higher returns if farmers can move up the value chain, protect quality, and access premium buyers.
What helped in August and what to watch
Positive factors in August included favorable weather in most coffee growing regions and active extension work. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries ran 145 farmer trainings across 11 regions, reaching over 4,000 farmers. Those programs support planting, pruning, and good agricultural practices that improve yields and long term quality.
On the flip side, global price swings and the heavy Robusta weighting make Uganda vulnerable to external shocks. Watch the average export price per kilogram, Robusta futures and seasonal harvest timing, and European demand patterns. Diversifying buyers and investing in processing and quality control would blunt future shocks.
Outlook: September and beyond
MAAIF projects September exports at about 750,000 bags as the main harvest ramps up in Central and Eastern regions. Season-to-date figures already show healthy growth in both volume and value, suggesting the industry is expanding even as prices fluctuate. The challenge for policy makers and private sector players is to convert volume growth into stable income and to shield smallholder households from volatile world markets.
Practical steps for resilience
Short term actions that can make a difference:
- Prioritize quality upgrades and traceability to access premium Arabica and specialty markets.
- Expand storage and drying infrastructure so farmers can time sales when prices improve.
- Strengthen farmer training and cooperative models to increase bargaining power.
- Encourage exporters to use hedging and forward contracts to smooth revenue swings.
- Diversify markets, including growing intra-African demand and value added shipments.
August’s figures tell a clear story: a good harvest is necessary but not sufficient for solid returns. Uganda exported more coffee but earned less because price moved against the crop most sold abroad. Arabica’s gains point to promising pathways for higher earnings, while Robusta’s weakness is a reminder that global markets can undercut domestic gains. For farmers, exporters, and policy makers the path forward is a mix of better quality, smarter sales strategies, and deeper investment in processing and market diversification. That is how Uganda will turn export volume into lasting, fairer value.
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